BreachCalc

DSB · Denmark · October 2022. DSB says a cyberattack on a subcontractor’s test server indirectly caused many trains to stand still for four hours. This supports the supplier-dependency scenario; it does not establish a compromise of dispatch or signaling systems. DSB, 9 February 2023.

Transnet · South Africa · July 2021. INCIBE-CERT reports that the July 22 cyberattack forced some activities into manual operation and led to force majeure despite activation of business continuity plans. This is evidence of logistics disruption, not a measured dispatch-throughput benchmark. INCIBE-CERT, 4 August 2021.

Poland · August 2023. Unauthorized radio-stop transmissions halted trains and disrupted traffic. PAP reported PKP PLK’s statement that these incidents did not create a threat to people. This communications misuse is distinct from ransomware or a compromised scheduling database. PAP / PKP PLK, 30 August 2023.

Fictional model: Demand is 24 scheduling requests/hour. Normal service lasts from hour 0 to 1 at 24/hour; degraded service from hour 1 to 4 uses your selected fallback; restored service from hour 4 to 8 processes 36/hour. Backlog = previous backlog + arrivals − processed, where processed cannot exceed available work. There are no cancellations. Figures are rounded for display. Requests are work items, not trains or movement authorities. Track occupancy, interlocking, crew limits, passenger impacts and financial losses are not calculated here. The calculator below remains a separate model.